Qatar LNG Supply Uncertainty Puts Bangladesh at Risk Amid Hormuz Crisis

Prothom Alo English, Dhaka — As QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure period over LNG supplies amid the ongoing situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, Bangladesh is among the countries facing the greatest risk of supply disruption — with LNG shipments expected to face disruptions beyond September and potentially through November 2026.

LNG transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains almost completely halted under normal conditions. As a result, LNG supplies to buyers in Europe and Asia have become uncertain, according to Euronews. QatarEnergy has told buyers in Pakistan that supplies could be cancelled through October, and LNG shipments scheduled for Bangladesh are also expected to face disruptions beyond September.

📊 Qatar LNG Export Collapse

Qatar's LNG supplies to the global market have almost come to a halt because of the conflict:

• 💰 Qatar LNG cargoes (first 6 months of war): only 18
• 💰 Same period prior year: 509 cargoes
• 💰 Cargo decline: 96.5% reduction
• 💰 Qatar revenue loss: approximately $24 billion
• 📊 Pre-war share: nearly one-fifth of global LNG trade through Hormuz

🚢 Force Majeure Timeline

• 📅 March 2026: QatarEnergy first declared force majeure
• 📅 Each month since: force majeure extended
• 📅 Latest extension: through early November
• 📅 June 2026: limited LNG transport resumed after US-Iran MoU
• 📅 Renewed attacks: shipping risks increased again

🏛 Bangladesh's LNG Supply Position

Bangladesh normally imports LNG from two sources: long-term contracts and the spot market. It has long-term agreements with Qatar and Oman. Since the war began in the Middle East, supplies from both countries have been regularly disrupted.

• 🚢 Long-term LNG contracts: Qatar and Oman
• 🚢 Spot market procurement: 47 cargoes YTD 2026
• 🚢 FSRU status: both Excelerate and Summit operational
• 🚢 September plan: 8 cargoes confirmed
• 🚢 October plan: 4 more spot cargoes (separate FE report)
• ⚠️ Qatar disruptions: expected beyond September

🌏 Expert Assessment: Most At-Risk Countries

Anne-Sophie Corbeau, an expert at Columbia University's Centre on Global Energy Policy, considers Pakistan, Bangladesh and India among the countries most at risk. Countries that rely heavily on LNG and source a large share of their imports from Qatar or the UAE will be hit hardest. The risks are even greater if they cannot secure enough alternative cargoes.

• 🇵🇰 Pakistan: most at risk
• 🇧🇩 Bangladesh: most at risk
• 🇮🇳 India: most at risk
• 🇯🇵 Japan: relatively safer (less Qatar-dependent, diversified long-term contracts)

🏢 QatarEnergy Production Damage

• 🏢 12 undamaged production units: approximately 2 months to resume
• 🏢 2 damaged units (Ras Laffan): 3-5 years to repair
• 🏢 QatarEnergy: unable to provide assurance on when normal exports resume
• 🏢 Force majeure: extended month-by-month

🌏 Global LNG Market Impact

Other exporters are making up part of the shortfall:

• 🇺🇸 United States: LNG supplies increased
• 🇨🇦 Canada: new facilities began production
• 🇳🇬 Nigeria: LNG production increased
• 🇲🇾 Malaysia: LNG production increased
• 🇦🇺 Australia: new export infrastructure

However, even with these increases, the shortfall in LNG supplies from Qatar is not being fully covered. Corbeau said it could take until 2028 for the global LNG market to regain the comfortable balance between supply and demand that existed previously.

📊 European Buyer Experience: Edison

Italian energy supplier Edison reported that QatarEnergy would be unable to deliver five more LNG cargoes scheduled between late September and early November. Under its agreement with QatarEnergy, Edison has had 29 cargoes cancelled since April, containing around 3.8 billion cubic metres of natural gas. Edison secured alternatives for 21 of the 29 cancelled cargoes.

🌏 Strategic Implications for Bangladesh

• ⚠️ Qatar force majeure through November: long-term contract disruptions
• ⚠️ Most at-risk country: Bangladesh highly Qatar-dependent
• ⚠️ 3-5 years for damaged units: long-term supply reduction
• ⚠️ 2028 for market rebalance: multi-year supply tightness
• ⚠️ 96.5% Qatar cargo decline: from 509 to 18 in 6 months
• ✅ Spot market diversification: 47 cargoes YTD from alternatives
• ✅ September 8 cargoes confirmed: short-term supply secured
• ✅ 4 more October cargoes: additional procurement planned
• ✅ New ERL-2 refinery: domestic refining capacity doubling (separate PA report)

The Qatar LNG supply uncertainty represents one of the most significant energy security risks for Bangladesh — with the country identified as among the most at-risk globally due to its heavy reliance on Qatar long-term LNG contracts and limited alternative supply options. The combination of force majeure extensions through November, 96.5 percent decline in Qatar's LNG exports, 3-5 year timeline for repairing damaged production units, and 2028 timeline for global market rebalance creates a multi-year energy supply challenge that Bangladesh must navigate through aggressive spot market diversification, domestic refining capacity expansion (ERL-2), renewable energy acceleration, and potentially new long-term LNG contracts with non-Qatar suppliers through the LDC graduation transition period.