Bangladesh Trade Deficit Hits Three-Year High at $27.3 Billion: Imports Surge While Exports Stagnate

Dhaka, August 9, 2026 — Bangladesh's trade deficit widened to a three-year high of $27.28 billion in FY2025-26 — a 34 percent jump from the previous fiscal year — as imports surged 10.5 percent while exports remained virtually flat, raising concerns among economists about the quality and sustainability of the country's external trade performance.

📊 The Numbers

• 📉 Trade deficit (FY26): $27.28 billion (up 34% from FY25)
• 📉 Exports: $43.85 billion (virtually unchanged from $43.86B in FY25)
• 📈 Imports: $71.14 billion (up 10.5% YoY — largest annual gain since FY22)
• 📈 Remittances: $35.6 billion (record high)
• 📈 Overall BoP surplus: $6.6 billion

💬 Expert Analysis: CPD

"Definitely, it indicates weak external performance, and global factors are more responsible for this than domestic ones," said Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD). He said imports grew mainly for inflationary reasons (particularly higher petroleum prices), while tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration, rising inflation in the West, and war-related supply disruptions have dampened orders from international buyers.

"So, this widening trade imbalance reflects the volatility stemming from global economic uncertainty," Moazzem said. He also called on the government to focus on alternative energy sources such as renewables to reduce imports, fearing energy market volatility could persist.

💬 Expert Analysis: RAPID

Abdur Razzaque, chairman of the Research and Policy Integration for Development (RAPID), cautioned against reading the higher import bill as a sign of stronger investment: "Bangladesh Bank's import data show that capital-machinery imports have remained weak, while imports of industrial raw materials have also been subdued. This suggests that the increase in aggregate imports has not yet been accompanied by a broad-based revival in productive investment."

"What is unusual in the present situation is the combination of a sizeable increase in total imports with continued weakness in investment-oriented imports and virtually no export growth. This suggests that Bangladesh is experiencing some normalisation of domestic import demand, but not yet a strong investment-led recovery," Razzaque said.

🌏 The Asymmetry: Stability Without Investment

Despite the widening deficit, Razzaque noted it has not triggered an immediate BoP crisis — thanks to record remittances of $35.6 billion and a $6.6 billion overall BoP surplus. "This creates an interesting asymmetry in the economy: external-sector stability has improved considerably, but the improvement has not yet been matched by a comparable recovery in investment, industrial activity and export dynamism," he said.

"Remittances and stronger reserves are giving Bangladesh valuable macroeconomic space. The challenge now is to convert that stability into productive investment and export growth," Razzaque added — a challenge that the Tk 60,000 crore credit stimulus (scheduled for September) and the policy rate cut to 9.5 percent are designed to address.