Bangladesh Aus Paddy Farmers Face Heavy Losses Despite Good Harvest

🌾 For Rasel Hossain, this year's Aus harvest should have been a source of relief. Instead, the farmer from Uttargram village in Naogaon's Mohadevpur upazila is counting his losses. Rasel cultivated Aus on about 11 bighas of land this year, spending Tk 14,000 to Tk 15,000 per bigha. His yield ranged from 12 to 16 maunds per bigha (1 maund = 37.32 kg). At the current average market price of Tk 725 per maund, his earnings would be around Tk 11,000 per bigha.

📊 "At this rate, I am incurring a loss of Tk 4,000 to Tk 5,000 per bigha," he said. Like Rasel, Aus paddy farmers across Bangladesh are facing losses despite a good harvest, with prices falling by Tk 300 to Tk 400 per maund from a year ago while production costs remain high. The paradox of losses amid good harvest underscores the structural challenge of Bangladesh's agricultural market — where productivity gains are eroded by price collapses that exceed the per-unit cost savings from higher yields.

💰 Production Cost Vs Selling Price Gap

Farmers say the low prices are making it difficult to cover their costs, with some selling wet paddy at half price to repay loans taken for fertiliser, pesticides and irrigation. Rice millers blame weak demand on large stocks built up following excess rice imports during the interim government's tenure. Ministry of Food data show food grain stocks rose to 23.41 lakh tonnes on September 12, 2026, from 18.67 lakh tonnes a year earlier. Meanwhile, Directorate General of Food data show that the country imported a total of 12.68 lakh tonnes of rice in fiscal year 2025-26.

A visit to local markets in Naogaon's Mohadevpur upazila found Aus paddy selling for Tk 650 to Tk 750 per maund, compared with Tk 1,000 to Tk 1,200 during the same period last year. The 35-40% year-on-year price decline has pushed farmers into negative margins — even as they delivered a successful harvest.

• 💰 Production cost per bigha: Tk 14,000-15,000
• 💰 Earnings per bigha at Tk 725/maund: Tk 11,000
• 💵 Loss per bigha: Tk 4,000-5,000
• 📊 Paddy price (current): Tk 650-750 per maund
• 📊 Paddy price (last year): Tk 1,000-1,200 per maund
• 📊 Year-on-year price decline: Tk 300-400 per maund
• 📊 Production cost per kg (FY26): Tk 26-27
• 💰 Food grain stocks (Sept 12, 2026): 23.41 lakh tonnes
• 💰 Food grain stocks (year earlier): 18.67 lakh tonnes
• 💰 Rice imports FY26: 12.68 lakh tonnes
• 📊 Aus cultivation FY26: 945,000 hectares
• 📊 5-year decline in Aus acreage: 214,000 hectares

📜 Market Dynamics: Why Prices Have Collapsed

Shamsur Rahman, a seasonal paddy trader in Mohadevpur, said: "Last year, Aus sales started at Tk 1,000 per maund and later climbed to Tk 1,200 to Tk 1,300. This year, I am buying it at only Tk 700 to Tk 750 per maund." Explaining the low prices, Shamsur added: "Major mill owners are not purchasing paddy right now, and the government stopped procurement in the last few months. That is driving prices down."

Nurul Islam, a mill owner visiting Mohadevpur from Bogura's Sherpur upazila, said a large stock remains unsold in his warehouse. "Also, a lack of sunlight has made it difficult to dry paddy." The reference to mill owner warehouses carrying large stocks is significant — millers typically build inventory during the harvest season (May-July for Aus) to supply the year-round rice market. When millers have ample stocks and weak downstream demand, they reduce procurement — driving paddy prices down at the farm gate.

💰 Production Cost Analysis

Acknowledging the high costs and low market prices, Naogaon District Agricultural Marketing Officer Sohag Sarkar said production costs for Aus paddy reached Tk 26 to Tk 27 per kg this year, causing farmers to suffer losses at current selling prices. "We report the production costs to the government and submit weekly market price updates. However, we cannot fix local prices independently without government intervention," Sohag added.

Farmer Sukanta Paul of Boalmari upazila in Faridpur district said the production cost of Aus paddy was at least Tk 1,000 per maund, while he sold his paddy for Tk 950 to Tk 1,100 per maund. He said high fertiliser costs, unreliable electricity and expensive irrigation are among the major challenges he faces as a farmer. The reference to unreliable electricity is particularly significant — Bangladesh's power sector crisis has direct agricultural implications, as irrigation pumps depend on electricity for groundwater extraction. When power supply is unreliable, farmers must resort to diesel-powered pumps, which cost 3-4 times as much per unit of water pumped.

📊 Five-Year Decline In Aus Cultivation

Department of Agricultural Extension data show that nationwide Aus cultivation covered 11.59 lakh hectares in FY2021-22, yielding 45 lakh tonnes of paddy. The area fell to 10.61 lakh hectares in FY2022-23, when production stood at 43.5 lakh tonnes. By FY2024-25, cultivation covered 959,000 hectares, producing 41.91 lakh tonnes. For FY2025-26, acreage fell further, standing at 945,000 hectares, with a production target of approximately 40 lakh tonnes. Over the last five years, Aus acreage has declined by 214,000 hectares, reducing production by 500,000 tonnes.

The five-year decline — 214,000 hectares of Aus acreage lost, 500,000 tonnes of Aus production foregone — reflects a structural shift in Bangladesh's rice cropping patterns. Aus cultivation has been losing ground to Boro (winter irrigated rice) and Aman (monsoon rice) for years, driven by Aus's relatively lower yields, higher production costs per unit, and weaker market demand. The continued decline raises strategic concerns about cropping pattern sustainability, groundwater depletion from Boro cultivation, and Bangladesh's overall rice self-sufficiency trajectory.

🌿 Aus Varieties And Yields

DAE officials said the main Aus varieties in Bangladesh are BRRI dhan-48, BRRI dhan-56, BRRI dhan-65 and BINA dhan-19, with an average yield of 3.15 tonnes per hectare. The 3.15 tonnes per hectare yield is meaningfully lower than Boro rice yields (typically 4-5 tonnes per hectare) — reflecting Aus's status as a rainfed crop with limited irrigation support and the genetic yield potential of current Aus varieties. The yield gap suggests significant research investment opportunity: developing higher-yielding Aus varieties could improve farmer economics and slow the acreage decline.

📜 Policy Recommendations

Agricultural economist Jahangir Alam Khan suggested that the government's grain imports should take domestic harvest cycles and market supply into account. The recommendation addresses a long-standing coordination problem in Bangladesh's food management: the government often continues rice imports during peak domestic harvest seasons, creating supply gluts that depress farm-gate prices. Synchronising import timing with harvest gaps (between Aus, Aman and Boro seasons) would reduce the import-driven price collapse that has hurt Aus farmers this year.

Economist Abdul Bayes, former vice-chancellor of Jahangirnagar University, said increasing Aus paddy production is difficult because of high production costs, limited market demand and low yields. Bayes stressed that promoting Aus is important for maintaining ecological balance and reducing pressure on groundwater. Excessive Boro cultivation has contributed to groundwater depletion, he said, particularly in regions such as the Barind tract in Rajshahi.

The ecological argument for Aus promotion is structurally important. Boro rice cultivation — which depends on groundwater irrigation — has been a major driver of groundwater table decline in Bangladesh's northern districts, particularly the Barind tract. The shift from Aus (rainfed) to Boro (irrigated) has increased production but at significant ecological cost. Bayes's argument suggests that maintaining Aus acreage is not merely an economic issue but an ecological imperative for sustainable water management.

🌏 Strategic Implications For Bangladesh's Food Security

For Bangladesh's broader food security strategy, the Aus farmers' losses carry several strategic implications. First, the recurring pattern of farmers facing losses despite good harvests undermines the incentive structure needed to sustain domestic rice production. If farmers consistently lose money on Aus cultivation, the acreage decline will accelerate — driving increased dependence on imported rice and the food security vulnerabilities that come with import dependence.

Second, the role of food grain stocks (23.41 lakh tonnes) and rice imports (12.68 lakh tonnes) in depressing farm-gate prices suggests a structural misalignment between procurement, import and stock management policies. The Public Food Distribution System (PFDS) — Bangladesh's foodgrain procurement and distribution framework — needs better coordination to ensure that imports and stock releases do not undercut domestic harvest prices.

Third, the production cost challenge — particularly the role of unreliable electricity in driving irrigation costs — links the agricultural crisis to the broader power sector crisis that has been Bangladesh's most pressing macroeconomic challenge through 2025-26. Resolving the power sector crisis would have direct positive implications for agricultural production costs — supporting farmer profitability and slowing the structural decline in Aus cultivation.

🤝 What Comes Next

The coming months will reveal whether the government takes corrective action to support Aus farmers — through minimum support price intervention, accelerated procurement, or revised import timing. The next major crop cycle is Aman (harvested in November-December), which will face similar pricing pressures if the food grain stock overhang persists. Without structural reform of the procurement-import-stock coordination framework, Bangladesh's farmers will continue to face the paradox of good harvests yielding heavy losses — a pattern that undermines the long-term sustainability of the country's domestic rice production base.