石油价格继续下跌，沙特阿曼航线缓解了供应担忧。

📊 Brent crude futures dropped 19 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $105.64 a barrel by 0347 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate futures were down 33 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $102.10. Both contracts fell about $3 on Wednesday. The price decline follows several days of oil price surges driven by the Saudi East-West pipeline attack and broader Middle East supply disruption concerns.

🌏 "Concerns over supply tightness eased slightly following news that Saudi Arabia would ship cargo via Oman," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist of Nissan Securities Investment. "Expectations of progress toward easing tensions in the Middle East ahead of US-China summit next week are also capping price gains," he added. The combination of Saudi supply rerouting and diplomatic progress expectations has provided modest relief to oil markets that had been under sustained upward pressure.

🚢 Saudi Arabia's Oman Rerouting Strategy

Saudi Arabia is offering more loadings of crude oil to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port, people familiar with the matter said, blunting some of the hit to global supply from attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. However, some analysts were expecting these flows to only ease a portion of the supply loss from the kingdom's Red Sea port, capping the declines in oil prices.

The pick-up in flows through the Strait of Hormuz "is only partly offsetting lost export barrels following drone attacks that shut Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline," Saxo Bank analysts said in a note. The Oman rerouting — using ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, outside the most dangerous section of the Strait of Hormuz — provides a partial workaround for Saudi exports that would normally flow through the Yanbu Red Sea terminal. However, the transfer operations add cost and time, and the capacity is insufficient to fully replace the pipeline-routed volumes.

• 💰 布伦特原油：每桶105.64美元（下跌0.2%）
• 💰 西德克萨斯中质油：每桶102.10美元（下跌0.3%）
• 💰 两份合约均下跌：周三累计下跌约3美元
• 🚢 沙特改道至：阿曼苏哈尔港（船对船转运）
• 📜 管道损坏：2座泵站（修复时间不明）
• 📊 星展银行第四季度基本情景预测：布伦特原油价格85-95美元/桶
• ⚠ 星展银行悲观情景预测：布伦特原油价格可能飙升至120美元/桶

📜 管道袭击损害评估

本周早些时候，油价攀升至约四个月高点，此前航运业消息人士称，沙特阿拉伯红海出口中心延布的原油装载已暂停，利雅得方面还取消了向欧洲客户的部分货物交付。暂停装载源于东-西管道遭遇袭击，该管道为沙特延布港提供原油输送。自2月底美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击后，伊朗开始封锁霍尔木兹海峡，此后延布港成为沙特的主要石油出口通道。战前，霍尔木兹海峡是全球五分之一石油供应的通道。

据三位石油和安全消息人士评估，上周东-西管道的两座泵站在袭击中受损，修复时间尚不明确。修复时间的不确定性意味着经由延布港出口的管道输送将无限期暂停——即使改道至阿曼能提供部分临时缓解，结构性供应缺口仍将存在。

尽管油价下跌，中东战争仍在加剧

尽管周四油价下跌，但人们对中东战争不断升级的担忧依然存在。伊朗支持的胡塞武装周三表示，在闪电般的攻势将德黑兰在中东战争中的影响力扩展后，沙特战机对也门发动了轰炸，胡塞武装则向沙特城市发射了无人机和导弹。也门冲突的加剧——沙特对也门发动空袭，胡塞武装则向沙特城市发射导弹——标志着始于今年2月美国和以色列对伊朗发动袭击的更广泛的中东战争进一步升级。

星展银行情景分析：基准情景85至95美元，熊市情景120美元

新加坡星展银行在其第四季度基准情景中假设，美国与伊朗的战争将缓和，布伦特原油价格将稳定在85至95美元区间。"然而，在当前占主导地位的熊市情景下，随着霍尔木兹海峡和红海地区持续发生袭击和事件，油价可能会飙升至每桶120美元，随后可能回落至100美元左右。"星展银行能源研究主管苏夫罗·萨卡尔表示。星展银行的评估——将熊市情景定性为"当前占主导地位"——表明该行分析师认为当前的油价走势更接近每桶120美元的飙升情景，而非85至95美元的稳定情景。

对孟加拉国的影响

对孟加拉国而言，油价走势对该国的燃料进口成本和宏观经济管理有着直接影响。以每桶105.64美元计算，孟加拉国每年约500万吨原油进口成本仍远高于战前水平。若如星展银行所预测的熊市情景成真，油价进一步飙升至每桶120美元，将使年度燃料进口成本增加约5至7亿美元，这将给外汇储备带来额外压力，并可能迫使国内燃料价格进一步调整。

尽管巴基斯坦从阿曼重新航线的部分缓解有所好转，但这并未解决管道关闭带来的结构性供应损失。一旦东-西管道修复或建立可持续的出口替代通道，石油价格将保持高位波动，一旦出现进一步的供应中断，价格可能会上涨至每桶120美元以上。对于孟加拉国的经济规划，DBS的情景分析建议在至少2027年上半年内，预算假设应包含持续高位的能源价格，并应准备应对每桶120美元的极端情况。