Bangladesh Markets Remain Volatile For Four Years: Different Approach Needed, Say Economists

Dhaka, September 24, 2026 — Most of the fish brought to Dhaka comes from Mymensingh. Ali Hossain, a fish trader from Trishal in the district, has been transporting fish from there to wholesale markets in Dhaka for 15 years. On Wednesday, Ali Hossain told Prothom Alo that he can carry about 40 maunds of fish in a truck using water-filled drums. Since the price of fuel oil was increased by Tk 20 per litre last Sunday, the truck fare has gone up by Tk 2,000.

📊 Calculations show that the additional transport cost per kilogram is less than Tk 1.50. However, a visit to Dhaka's Mohammadpur Krishi Market, Town Hall Market, and Agargaon Taltola Market found that sellers are asking for Tk 20 to Tk 30 more per kilogram for farmed fish than before — a markup that significantly exceeds the actual cost increase.

👥 The Markup Math

Chayan Chandra Das, a fish seller at Krishi Market, told Prothom Alo that they bring fish from the Mirpur-6 market in small trucks. The fare for those trucks has increased from Tk 1,000 to Tk 1,200. Wholesalers are also asking for higher prices than before. All these factors have pushed up fish prices.

The arithmetic is stark:

• 💰 Actual increase in transport cost per kg of fish: less than Tk 1.50
• 💰 Actual price increase at retail level: Tk 20-30 per kg
• 💰 Markup beyond actual cost increase: 13x-20x

Following the hike in fuel prices including diesel, the cost of transporting products from farmers' fields to wholesale markets has risen. The cost of bringing products from various districts to Dhaka has increased, as has the fare for moving goods from wholesale to retail markets. Analysis shows that the increase in costs at each stage has gone beyond what would normally be expected. Prices have risen by more than the actual increase in costs.

📈 Four Years Of Volatility

Overall, the impact has been visible in the markets, which have already been volatile since 2022. With prices staying high for four consecutive years, inflation has remained elevated and low-income people are in extreme crisis.

Economists say prolonged high inflation can push some people who are just above the poverty line back into poverty. Khondaker Golam Moazzem, research director at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), was asked about the current condition of people. He said people were adopting various ways to cope because of prolonged inflation and limited job creation, including:

• 🛍 Setting up roadside shops
• 🛍 Driving battery-run rickshaws

In other words, informality in the economy is increasing. On the other hand, many young people are becoming involved in crime — a social cost that often gets underweighted in macroeconomic analysis but is directly tied to economic stress.

💬 CPD Director's Eyewitness Account

While speaking to Prothom Alo over phone, Moazzem was traveling by car from Banani to Mohammadpur. Stuck in traffic, he witnessed a snatcher trying to snatch a person's mobile phone right in front of him.

💬 Golam Moazzem said people have not been in the grip of such high inflation for such a long time in the recent past. People are in crisis. The fuel price hike and the pay raise for government employees may further fuel inflation.

📜 Historical Context: 2007-2008 To 2026

Due to high prices in the global market and various domestic reasons, the prices of daily essentials increased around 2007-2008. Prices were high at the beginning of the Awami League government's tenure that came to power in 2009. However, fuel and food prices in the global market began to fall quickly, and the then-government benefited from this.

Analysts say that due to fuel and electricity prices, the production cost of goods will increase, which will also drive up prices. However, it is possible to reduce prices by taking product-specific measures in some cases. The government's relevant ministries are paying little attention to that.

📈 The 2022 Turning Point

Until the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, there was no major concern regarding inflation in the country. Prices rose during the beginning of the pandemic due to panic buying. The real crisis began in February 2022 after the Russia-Ukraine war started:

• 📋 Supply shortages emerged in the global market.
• 📋 Fuel and food prices increased.
• 📋 The price of the dollar began to soar.
• 📋 Foreign exchange reserves began to decline.
• 📋 Inflation became unbridled.

The Awami League government could not manage it properly at that time. Instead, the prices of gas, electricity and oil were increased repeatedly. The economic situation deteriorated further due to unnecessary projects, money laundering and corruption. Later, the Awami League government was ousted in the July mass uprising on 5 August 2024.

💰 Currency And Reserves Trajectory

By the time the Awami League government fell:

• 💵 The dollar had increased from Tk 86 to Tk 118.
• 💵 Reserves fell from US$48 billion to US$26 billion.
• 💵 That was only possible through strict import controls and deferring debt payments.

The interim government took office in August 2024. Economist Ahsan H Mansur became the Governor of Bangladesh Bank. This government halted the economic collapse, managed to stabilise the dollar rate and increased foreign exchange reserves, but still could not keep inflation at a tolerable level. Interest rates were increased to curb inflation.

🏛 The Current Government's Challenges

Then the BNP government assumed office on 17 February 2026. Immediately afterward, the war in the Middle East began, which created a crisis in fuel supply and prices rose. That crisis is still ongoing. The government has increased diesel prices by Tk 35 per litre in two phases. Electricity prices were increased by an average of 17 per cent last June.

Analysts say that due to fuel and electricity prices, the production cost of goods will increase, which will also drive up prices. However, it is possible to reduce prices by taking product-specific measures in some cases. The government's relevant ministries are paying little attention to that.

📋 Prices Of Daily Essentials: Then Vs Now

Eggs are a major source of protein for low and middle-income families. Rowshan Ara, a resident of the capital's Shewrapara, needs at least 6 eggs every morning for her family. She occasionally cooks eggs for lunch and dinner as well. She said she has to buy an average of 250 eggs per month.

• 🥚 Before 2022: A dozen brown farm chicken eggs cost Tk 90-120 throughout the year.
• 🥚 Now (Sept 2026): Egg prices fluctuate between Tk 120-160 per dozen.
• 🥚 Yesterday in Dhaka markets: Eggs sold at Tk 150 per dozen.

Rowshan Ara said her expenses on eggs alone had increased significantly. Like eggs, broiler chicken prices are high as well at Tk 180-200 per kg. Beef has been out of reach for low-income people for a long time, at Tk 780-850 per kg.

💼 Why A Different Approach Is Needed

The Prothom Alo analysis — by journalists Rajib Ahmed and Shafiqul Islam — underscores that Bangladesh's inflation problem is not just a macroeconomic phenomenon. It is also a market structure and regulatory enforcement problem:

• 👥 Cost-pass-through is asymmetric — when input costs rise, retail prices increase immediately and excessively. When input costs fall, retail prices do not adjust downward proportionately.
• 👥 Market oversight is weak — the Directorate of National Consumer Rights Protection (DNCRP) has limited capacity to monitor thousands of kitchen markets.
• 👥 Wholesale-retail markup is opaque — consumers cannot verify whether the price increases they face are justified by actual cost changes.
• 👥 Hoarding and speculative storage are common — particularly for essentials like onions, garlic, edible oil and sugar.

A different approach would require:

• 🔹 Product-specific market interventions — targeted price monitoring and enforcement for high-volume essentials.
• 🔹 Strengthening DNCRP — with more staff, technology and enforcement authority.
• 🔹 Open Market Operations (OMO) — using TCB and other state agencies to stabilise prices through strategic imports and distribution.
• 🔹 Digital price transparency platforms — allowing consumers to compare prices across markets in real time.
• 🔹 Coordinated fiscal-monetary policy — aligning Bangladesh Bank's inflation target with the government's fuel and energy pricing decisions.

💼 Outlook For Households

For households like Rowshan Ara's, the fuel price hike's impact is not theoretical — it shows up every morning in the price of eggs, every week in the price of fish, and every month in the household budget. With the government planning to implement a new pay scale from October — which will inject additional demand into the economy — inflationary pressure is likely to intensify in the coming months.

Without a different approach to market regulation and price stabilisation, the four-year volatility that has defined Bangladesh's kitchen markets since 2022 is unlikely to abate — and the social costs documented by CPD's Moazzem, including rising informality and crime, will continue to mount.