OECD Lifts Global Growth Forecast To 2.9 Percent For 2026 Despite Middle East War

Paris, September 25, 2026 — Economic growth has remained “resilient” in many countries despite the war in the Middle East, the OECD said Wednesday as it slightly raised its GDP forecasts for the year. Global economic growth is now seen at 2.9 percent, a 0.1-point increase from estimates in June by the Paris-based group of 38 industrialised countries.

📊 Key Forecast Changes

• 📈 2026 global growth: 2.9 percent (up 0.1 points from June)
• 📈 2027 global growth: 3.0 percent (trimmed 0.1 points)
• 📈 2025 actual growth: 3.4 percent
• 📈 G20 inflation (2026): 4.1 percent
• 📈 US GDP growth (2026): 2.2 percent (up 0.2 points from June)

💼 Why Growth Has Been Resilient

Even though energy prices have soared since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran last February, the OECD noted several cushioning factors:

• 💰 Broader financial conditions remain supportive — as seen in rising equity markets and continued access to credit.
• 💰 Sizeable oil inventories — built up before the conflict.
• 💰 Additional supply from outside the Gulf economies — including US shale production and non-OPEC suppliers.
• 💰 Discretionary government support measures — including subsidies and fiscal stimulus.
• 💰 Massive investments in artificial intelligence — and the resulting boost to production and trade, which could result in “stronger growth than projected.”

⚠ Downside Risks And Warnings

Despite the upward revision, the OECD highlighted several risks:

• ⚠ Global growth has slowed sharply from the 3.4 percent chalked up last year.
• ⚠ 2027 forecast trimmed by 0.1 percentage point to 3.0 percent.
• ⚠ Prolonged inflation risk if the Middle East war continues.
• ⚠ Rising government bond yields — to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2007-2008.
• ⚠ Weather-related supply shocks — including a very strong El Niño that could adversely impact agricultural production.

💬 OECD's Warning On Government Spending

💬 “Rising bond yields underline more than ever the need for enhanced efforts to contain and reallocate government spending, improve public-sector efficiency and strengthen revenues to ensure longer-term debt sustainability and maintain the ability of governments to react to significant shocks,” the OECD said.

🌏 Implications For Bangladesh

The OECD forecast has several implications for Bangladesh:

• 🇧🇩 Export market demand — resilient global growth supports demand for Bangladesh's RMG exports.
• 🇧🇩 Energy import costs — if oil prices remain elevated, Bangladesh's import bill will continue to strain reserves.
• 🇧🇩 Inflation pressure — the G20 inflation forecast of 4.1 percent suggests Bangladesh's inflation (at 8.7%) is above the global average.
• 🇧🇩 Comparison with ADB forecast — the ADB has projected Bangladesh's FY27 growth at 4.0 percent, well below the government's 6.5% target.
• 🇧🇩 Borrowing costs — rising global bond yields could increase Bangladesh's cost of external borrowing.

💼 The AI Investment Factor

The OECD's citation of massive investments in artificial intelligence as a growth driver is noteworthy. The AI investment boom is:

• 🧠 Boosting productivity in technology-intensive sectors.
• 🧠 Creating new trade opportunities in AI-related goods and services.
• 🧠 Driving stock market valuations — particularly in the US.
• 🧠 Potentially disrupting labour markets — as the IMF has warned regarding Bangladesh's 36% educated youth unemployment rate.

📜 Looking Ahead

The OECD's slightly improved forecast provides a measure of cautious optimism for the global economy. However, the organisation's warnings about downside risks — particularly prolonged inflation, rising bond yields, and El Niño-related supply shocks — suggest that the outlook remains fragile.

For Bangladesh, the key takeaways are: global growth resilience supports export demand, but elevated energy prices and inflation continue to pose challenges. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the global economy can sustain its resilient trajectory — or whether the accumulated risks will trigger a broader slowdown.